International Problems

VOL. LXIV, N°. 1, 2012.

The Bear and the World: Projections of Russia’s Policy after Putin’s Return
to Kremlin in 2012 (in English)

ABSTRACT   The paper deals with projections of Russia’s policy after Putin’s return to Kremlin in 2012. The focus is made on security and foreign policy issues. They are considered as twinned with the domestic affairs. In part of the paper author examines how the proposed rising of military spending impacts the Russian society, the state politics as a whole, as well as other relevant issues. The author insists that the increase/decrease of temperature of the US – Russia and Russia – the EU relationships is hardly only Russia’s concern.
Key words   Russia, Putin’s security and foreign policy, the first quarter of the 21 Century

Aleksandar FATIĆ and Aleksandra BULATOVIĆ,
The Problem of Truth in War Crimes Trials (in English)

ABSTRACT   The author discusses the relationship between the truth and criminal trial in general, with a special focus on war crimes trials and their consequences for the fragile processes of consolidation of violated collective identities in post-conflict states. The authors challenge the idea that a criminal trial is a search for the truth, and present a philosophical argument to the effect that the trial is in fact an event conforming to the model of what the author calls “quasi-epistemological games”, rather than the model of an epistemological engine. The purpose of the trial is quasi-epistemological, because the model of an epistemological engine entails that the trial is primarily a search for the truth, while this is not the case with criminal trials in general, and especially with war crimes trials. He argues that, while the criminal trial readily invites the truth of the events if it is discovered, it can be and often is both valid and valuable regardless of whether “the truth, the full truth, and nothing but the truth” is discovered in its course.
Key words   Search for the truth, quasi-epistemological games, legitimacy, war crimes, trials, collective identities

Dragan ĐUKANOVIĆ and Dejan GAJIĆ,
Euro-Asian Security Integrations and Security of The Balkans and Serbia

ABSTRACT   The authors analyse the range of security integrations in the post-Soviet area and their impact on security of the broader Euro-Asian region, the Balkans and Serbia. In that regard, they point to the main organisational aspects of security co-operation in the Euro-Asian space that have primarily resulted from the autochthonous initiatives from the states in the region within which they plan or develop specific common forces. The most significant results have been achieved within the Collective Security Organization (CSTO) that was established on the initiative of Russia and a part of the former Soviet Republics, as well as within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which was established on the initiative of Russia and China. Special emphasis in the paper is given to the security aspects of acting of the organisations mentioned above and their influence on Serbia and the Balkans, taking into consideration, above all, energy security.
Key words   Euro-Asia, security, Serbia, Balkans, CSTO, SCO

Foreign Trade Competitiveness of the Balkan Countries Under the Conditions of Globalization

ABSTRACT   The development of international trade on the world scale under the conditions of globalization, more than ever in the economic history has given prominence to the issues of given countries’ competitiveness and foreign trade companies. Competitiveness in foreign trade is a complex category affected by the factors of both economic and non-economic nature. With the increase of the degree of liberalization of foreign trade globally, competitiveness represents a very important factor that the results in this particular trade depend on and, consequently, realization of the developmental and stabilization objectives in the progress of trade. The Balkan countries are making efforts, through diverse forms of regional economic networking and economic cooperation, to define their competitiveness in foreign trade in such a way so as to ensure its higher level. The actions of this kind should change their relatively unfavorable position in international trade and improve the state in their foreign trade balance as well as balance of payments. In doing this, they encounter numerous problems of economic and non-economic nature, namely those that still condition their low competitiveness in foreign trade.
Key words   Competitiveness, Balkans, Globalization, Foreign Trade, Liberalization

Samir MANIĆ,
Responsibility for Dishonest Negotiations – Comparative Analysis

ABSTRACT   The author analyzes the regulation of institutes of responsibility for dishonest conducting of negotiations in normative acts of certain EU countries and the Balkans. He analyzes the rules of behaviour of parties during negotiations established through the court practice and theory in Switzerland, Germany, France and Hungary. In the paper the regulations of the most significant secondary sources of Contract Law have also been included and they are as follows: the Principles of European Contract Law (PECL) and Common Conceptual Framework (DCFR). Because of the great role in the regulation of pre-contract relationships, the author has devoted considerable attention to the principle of scruple and honesty.
Key words   responsibility for dishonest conducting of negotiations, pre-contract responsibility, principle of scruple and honesty

International Problems

VOL. LXIV, N°. 2, 2012.

Mihaela BRATU,
Forecasting inflation in Romania to improve the monetary policy
(in English)

ABSTRACT   Based on data of inflation forecasts provided quarterly by the National Bank of Romania, forecast intervals were built using the method of historical forecast errors. Forecast intervals were built considering that the forecast error series is normally distributed of zero mean and standard deviation equal to the RMSE (root mean squared error) corresponding to historical forecast errors. The author introduced as a measure of economic state the indicator– relative variance of the phenomenon at a specific time in relation with the variance on the entire time horizon. For Romania, when inflation rates follows an AR (1), She improved the technique of building forecast intervals taking into account the state of the economy in each period for which data were recorded. The author concludes tha it is necessary to build forecasts intervals in order to have a measure of predictions uncertainty.
Key words   uncertainty, inflation, forecast intervals, relative variance, historical forecasts errors, root mean squared error (RMSE).
JEL Classification: E20, E27, E17

The Succession of International Treaties in Contemporary Practice

ABSTRACT   Succession of states is a process of substitution of state subjects concerning responsibility of international legal relations of the territory to which the succession relates to. No general rules and unwillingness of states to apply particular rules on succession often caused extreme difficulties in the past in analysing the succession of treaty rights and obligations. As a totally incomplete system that would serve to regulate all problems caused by the change of the state territorial sovereignty in time the law of succession has manifested a tendency towards “adjustment” of customary rules to the factual situation. The contemporary examples of dissolution of the USSR, Czechoslovakia and SFR Yugoslavia, re-unification of Germany, as well gaining of independence by the Baltic States prove the assertion mentioned above. However, succession does not always prejudice legal substitution of states with regard to their rights and obligations. The study of the legal consequences of the process of succession of states presumes the application of a comparative method in the analysis of the state practice as well as the implementation of rules and principles of international law codificated in the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties.
Key words   international treaties, succession of states, the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties, codification, contemporary practice

Vladan JONČIĆ and Miloš PETROVIĆ,
Military Necessity in Geneva Conventions of 1949

ABSTRACT   The fundamental question of international law of armed conflict is the question of military necessity principle in international law of armed conflict, ie. in international humanitarian law. Hearings on this issue is necessary because it is still the danger that the principle of recognition of the needs of military regulations and deceive the application of international law of armed conflict. That’s why the military needs to be seen as a permitted deviation from compliance with rules of war. Extreme, this concept has led to the emergence of the theory of the military. Its radical variant of the proceeds from the Maxims of German classical scholars of international law. The result of theoretical assumptions had the effect of limiting the acceptance of military necessity of the first codification of the day. The four Geneva Conventions of 1949. The heavily consider the military. In all the texts of international conventions is determined by military necessity, as a circumstance or set of circumstances which affect the duty of obeying the regulations of international law. In international law there is no general rule of military necessity as a basis or reason for justified violations of rules of international law of armed conflict. The rules of international law represent a compromise between the desire for a decoration rules of warfare and the need to ensure all the necessary tools that can lead to victory. The four Geneva Conventions of 1949. the military need to provide in terms of the principles of humanity. Set rules on military necessity in the Geneva Conventions give the right correction factor in the role of the law of armed conflict. The Geneva Conventions there is a degree of confusion in terminology, where the concept of military necessity needlessly allocated a number of synonyms. This is because the international law of armed conflict and emerged as a normative regulation of proportionality between the military needs) and general principles and humane principles.
Key words   military necessity, Geneva Conventions, international humanitarian law, international law of armed conflict, the Protecting Powers, war, armed conflict, imperative military necessity

Vladimir GREČIĆ and Srđan KORAĆ,
Political Discourse of Extreme Right in Western Europe: the Imigration Issue

ABSTRACT   The paper is an attempt to identify the basic characteristics and changes in the European migration flows in the last twenty years and to point to their possible implications on the changes in support to far right in West European countries. The analysis shows that it is almost impossible to generalise the characteristics of the migration flows and their effects since the general picture differs from country to country in the number of foreign population and their share in the total number of inhabitants of the EU members which are mostly receiving countries, the net immigration rate and the number of applications for asylum. Although the rounds of EU enlargement in 2004 and 2007 have not caused mass migrations within the Union, the political discourse of far right is just focused on immigration policy. The authors point to the fact that such a social milieu has been gradually created that can induce a part of followers of far right to resort to violence and to weaken consensual mechanisms of the multi-cultural West European societies for a long term.
Key words   migrations, migration policy, right, ideology, securitisation, demography

Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa

ABSTRACT   At the beginning, author provides concretization of terms geopolitics and conflict and an explanation of geographical term Horn of Africa. In the following discussion, characterization and classification of the conflict between African countres is carried out. The work also comprises an analysis of geopolitical characteristics of the Horn of Africa and provides a brief synthesis of the countries in the region. Further, it explains the mutual relations and the nature of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, current military presence in the Horn of Africa and the importance of Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The author analzyes energy connection between Horn of Africa and the Middle East, regional and interregional impacts on the Horn of Africa countries and gives concluding remarks.
Key words   geopolitics, Horn of Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, energy, conflict