INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS, NO. 1-2, 2005
The paper gives a comprehensive picture of fundamental issues connected with the Irish “economic miracle”, with especial regard to globalisation effect. The analysis of Ireland’s economic development in the period from 1960 to 2003 answers the question why it decelerated, instead of accelerating, for a long time: two decades after the accession to the European Community in 1973 and mainly the enigma, the “economic miracle” why the rate of growth accelerated in the decade after 1993 to an extent (on annual average to almost 8 percent) similar to that previously observed only in East Asia. The country has not only caught up economically with the European Union, but has approximated the level of development of the United States. The analysis shows that all this can be attributed not only to Ireland’s favourable conditions, but also to an adequate economic policy and foreign direct investment. The author reveals the so-called globalisation effect that in Ireland after 1993 had a decisive role in the extraordinary acceleration of economic growth.
Prof. Dragan JOVAŠEVIĆ
INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL JUDICIARY AS A MEANS TO KEEP AND PROTECT PEACE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
After a long historical development, the second half of the 20th century has inaugurated the new, latest branch of the punitive law – international criminal law. By its legal nature and characteristics it is somewhere between the national criminal law and international public law, maintaining its peculiarity and independence. The basic and most important notion and institute of this branch of law is certainly the international criminal act.
In the theory of law (domestic and foreign), there are several views on the notion and contents of the international criminal act. However, it can be concluded that this notion implies a socially dangerous, illegal act committed by the perpetrator and defined as a criminal act whose perpetrator is to be punished as prescribed by the law. Such a defined notion of the international criminal act includes its basic elements, and these are as follows: 1) the act of a man (including the act of an adult person that can be committed in three forms: acting, non-acting, failure to provide proper supervision, effect and casualty; 2) social danger; 3) unlawfulness; 4) definition of an act by rules, and 5) guilt of the perpetrator.
There are two kinds of international criminal acts: international criminal acts in a narrow sense and international criminal acts in a broad sense. The most significant are certainly the international criminal acts in a narrow sense that are directed towards violation or endangering of the universal, general civilisation values – international law and humanity – what is actually the subject of protection from these criminal acts.
Apart from the international criminal act, the theory of law also includes a foreign criminal act (any criminal act with a foreign element). By all this, these two notions coincide largely, but are also considerably different from each other.
Apart from the general notion of the international criminal act, the theory of law also includes a special being or a special notion of the international criminal act by whose characteristics and specific forms and shapes of manifestation some international criminal acts or responsibility of their perpetrators actually differ from each other. As a matter of fact, all international legal documents in this field (and then national criminal legislation as well) deal with the whole system of various incriminations punished by various kinds and sorts of penalties (as basic sorts of criminal sanctions). The following documents deal with some international criminal acts in their specific forms and shapes of manifestation: The Statute of the International Military Tribunal (that served to reach the Nuremberg and then the Tokyo verdicts), the Law No. 10 of the Control Council for Germany, the Statute of the Hague Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia as well as the statutes of some other ad hoc tribunals such as: Tribunals for Rwanda, Eastern Timor and Sierra Leone, then the Statute of the Iraqi Special Tribunal and finally the Permanent International Criminal Court Statute (the so-called Rome Statute).
INTER-STATE TRADE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Trade is the most important integration link in the overall world production. After the Second World War it induced the establishment of economic integrations. In the last three decades international trade has been more dynamic than the growth of the world production. The data show that the commodity trade is the strongest component of the world purchase and sale, although the international trade in services has grown a bit faster than the commodity trade. However, the share of services in the world trade does not exceed 20 per cent. International trade has most developed among developed countries, keeping up the mutual development of foreign direct investments and know-how and technology transfer.
The empirical research shows that apart from the benefits gained by capitalisation of comparative advantages the trade growth is also influenced by benefits resulting from the impact of the economy of scale, competition and spreading of knowledge. Reduction of tariff and elimination of non-tariff barriers constantly opens new opportunities to benefit from international trade in commodities and services.
Commodity trade of OECD countries confirms that the volume of trade does not depend only on liberalisation of tariff and non-tariff barriers, but growth to a certain degree reflects the size of the country, geographic elements and transport costs. Therefore, the empirical works predominantly analyse the power of trade as an indicator of the manifested commodity trade, embracing the characteristics such as competition pressures, but not including some deeper political meaning. The previously mentioned factor is significant, since given the policy and competition small countries are naturally more dependent on foreign trade, although competition pressures among big countries largely result from competition inside themselves. A significant change in the trade structure has been recorded in the period of over two years. At first, intra-industrial trade became equal to traditional inter- industrial production, and afterwards it has even exceeded it.
For a long time the factors of foreign trade growth have been disputable. The works of Baier and Berstrand show that income growth and reduction of customs produce the main impact on foreign trade growth. In their opinion liberalisation of trade within GATT and WTO is one of the main driving forces in international trade. Reduction of trade costs also produces some impact on foreign trade growth, while approximation of incomes is less significant. Badlinger and Breuss have explored the elements that in the last four decades of the last century made an impact on faster growth of inter-trade of EU-15 member countries. They have estimated the relative impact of the income growth, income equalisation as well reduction of tariffs and trade costs on the intra-trade of EU-15 member countries. The results show that the income growth increases by 70 per cent the intra-trade of these countries. Also, the European integration and liberalisation of GATT and WTO increase by 25 per cent the commodity intra-trade of EU-15.
Dr. Aleksandar FATIĆ
KEY ISSUES IN FIGHTING ORGANISED CRIME IN THE BALKANS
Traditional definitions of organised crime tend to focus on its links with the market. They depict organised crime as an alternative industry based on the stable supply of a criminal market, characterised by the use of force or threat by it, and motivated by illicit profit or a quest of political power. These definitions arise from the historically most common depictions of specific activities of organised crime, which in most parts of Europe and North America have traditionally been associated with the illegal collection of debts, extortion rackets, contract murders or systemic corruption leading to, and associated with, a transnational trade in drugs. Through the evolution of the definitions, these stereotypes have gradually waned away, and the use of violence, as well as the primary motivation by material profit, has been omitted from the lists of obligatory characteristics that a crime must fulfill in order to be classified as “organised crime”. More recently, in the European Union definition, the use of violence and motivation by profit alone have been made only conditional criteria, and the quest of institutional power has been recognised as a motivating factor for organised crime equal to that of generating illicit profit. These new definitional approaches have opened the way to revolutionary ways of understanding the development of organised crime, specifically to including white-collar crime and massive fraud in the future definitions of organised crime, as well as further elaborating the aspect of political violence that is present in many organised crime activities across the world. In the Balkans, these new moments in defining organised crime appear to have been tested particularly directly in Serbia, where, first, there has been a long public debate over a systematic “siphoning away” of public funds to the accounts of private companies through the mass corruption of a former, post-communist government until 2001. Subsequently, organised criminal rings have been accused of having masterminded and executed the assassination of the late Serbian Prime Minister, Dr Zoran Đinđić. The Balkans, and particularly Serbia, have been exposed to some of the most destructive consequences of organised crime. Correspondingly, the region can serve as a polygon or testing grounds for the exploration of the conceptual issues associated with organised crime. Finally, the experiences in crime control gained in this process could be valuable tools to address organised crime elsewhere. This especially concerns the emergence of what has recently become known in criminological discourse as the “New War-Making Criminal Entity”. This paper explores the key features of organised crime against the background of the Serbian, and, by extension, Balkan circumstances, and draws conclusions as to how these experiences can be useful more globally.
Prof. Boris KRIVOKAPIĆ
PROTECTION OF NATIONAL MINORITIES BETWEEN THE TWO WORLD WARS – A LOOK BACK TO SOME SPECIAL CASES
The work is a brief look back to some special situations between the two world wars and at the time when the so-called Versailles system was applied. This system is also well known by special solutions that were reached in the field of protection of minorities. Peace and minority agreements formed the framework for such solutions, including one-party declarations that were imposed to defeated states (except Germany) and to a number of small- and medium-sized countries. These issues were relatively comprehensively treated in the literature of that time, as well as in the publications after the Second World War.
However, in parallel with this, a whole number of specific situations was resolved by adoption of special agreements that included some special situations. This is, actually, the subject of this article. If we look closely, it firstly treats special international agreements on minorities, presenting a survey of the most significant bilateral agreements on protection of minorities and other agreements, including the ones on the exchange of population. After that, the author has presented the most significant characteristics of some special situations that occurred in the period between the two world wars, concerning the status of certain territories and the position of ethnic and some other minorities as well (Dancig, Aland Islands, Upper Schlesia, Memel).
Although the author notices the weak points of the considered solutions, that, after all, were of short duration, he points out that they, yet, served to achieve some results. Some of them were of great importance for that time, and they particularly contributed to resolving of some open political issues. For various reasons some of them are interesting even today, and not only as historical documents. All this suggests that the considered agreements and situations should be taken into account at our time, if nothing else, than for the fact they are a group of positive and negative experiences that as such could to some extent help find better solutions for these problems.
Dr. Branko PAVLICA
MIGRATIONS FROM YUGOSLAVIA TO GERMANY - MIGRANTS, EMIGRANTS, REFUGEES AND ASYLUM-SEEKERS
Migrations from Yugoslavia to Germany have a long tradition. There have been various economic and social causes, and in some periods even political ones for that phenomenon. Taking into consideration the historical aspect and also the contemporary migration flows, the dynamics of migrations of the Yugoslav population to Germany has the following stages in its development. The first stage had begun in late XIX century and ended with the World War I. Although the overseas migration flows prevailed, yet the German agriculture and its mine industry attracted a part of the Yugoslav population. Between the two world wars mostly «Westfahl Slovenes« and Croats and Serbs from Bosnia-Herzegovina got »temporary employed« in the Rhine-Westfahl industrial area, along with several thousand Serb-Croat-Slovene agricultural seasonal workers per year.
The second stage began immediately after the Second World War when most of about 200,000 citizens from the former Yugoslavia, being mostly refugees, moved from the West European to overseas countries, but some of them stayed in Germany. Involuntary migrants and refugees, however, returned in great number from Germany to Yugoslavia. At that stage non-extradition of war criminals on the part of the West occupying powers on German territory, then disregard of West German Governments of the anti-Yugoslav activities of the part of extreme Yugoslav emigration, and different interpretation of the bilateral agreement on extradition, became the essential problem in relations between SFR Yugoslavia and FR Germany.
The third stage in development of migrations commenced in early 1960s. At that time, Germany and other Western countries became prominently immigrational, while since mid-1960s till 1973 economic emigrants from Yugoslavia became more and more important in the German economic space. From 1954 to 1967 migration of Yugoslav citizens had not yet been intensive and their intention was mostly to work abroad. Illegal employment was, however, prominent at that time. Due to the normalisation of political relations, re-establishment of diplomatic relations and conclusion of bilateral agreements that legally defined employment of foreign workers, since 1968 till 1973 a great number of Yugoslavs got employed in FR Germany.
The contemporary migrations from FR Yugoslavia to Germany resulted from the economic and political crisis in the former SFRY as well as from the civil wars that were waged in the Yugoslav territory. FR Germany became the most important destination country of Yugoslav migrants – workers, refugees, false asylum-seekers and political emigrants.
Different categories of migrants from Yugoslavia to Germany enjoy the treatment that is in accordance with the immigration policies of the German governments as well as with the degree of development of the German-Yugoslav political and economic relations, and the degree of the established co-operation in the field of legal assistance and social welfare. Migrant workers, who have legally regulated their employment and residence status, could in the future expect to gain assistance from their mother country in getting efficient protection of their rights and interests in all stages of the migration process. Numerous migrants asylum-seekers, in spite of the proclaimed international protection, share, however, the fate resulting from the politically motivated measures and actions taken by the German authorities within the arbitrary decision-making of the right and/or abuse of the right to asylum. This is the reason why as early as in late 1994 the Government of FRG announced that it would expel foreigners from the country.
The remaining refugees, or actually the so-called false asylum-seekers in FR Germany, share the fate of forced repatriation. Within this category special emphasis should be placed on the attitude of the German government to the Albanians and Roma from Kosovo. At first, the Germans treated the Albanians from Kosovo as politically persecuted persons, offering them refuge. Then they declared them (and Roma also) to be false asylum-seekers and insisted on readmission – their gradual repatriation to Kosovo.
Considering both positive and negative implications of the migration process, the key issue for the citizens from Serbia and Montenegro who live in Germany remains the following: maintenance of their national identity, cherishing of their mother tongue and culture, keeping up relations with their mother country, social gathering – in various associations, clubs and organisations, education in their mother tongue, what particularly includes comprehensive additional teaching for children in Serbian, as well as better information dissemination.
Nurul MOMEN and Marzina BEGUM
GOOD GOVERNANCE IN BANGLADESH: PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGES
In this article the authors focus on challenges, experiences and strategies for good governance in Bangladesh. They explore what capacities states need to develop in order to meet the demands and how to strengthen governance institutions, including electoral management bodies, parliaments and judicial systems in Bangladesh.
THE NEW EUROPEAN UNION DIRECTIVE ON ENVIRONMENTAL LIABILITY
The New EU Directive on Environmental Liability provides for the system of liability for damage to the environment provoked by human activity. The Directive further provides for direct application of polluter-pays principles, the concept of environmental damage and a variety of preventive and remedial actions.
The underlying principle of the Directive is the establishment of financial liability of the operators whose actions provoke environmental damage or the danger of occurrence of the environmental damage, all with the aim to stimulate such operators to adopt appropriate measures and procedures to diminish of environmental risks and therefore decrease their disposure to the environmental liability. Directive is applicable to the operators of the „regulated activities“, which includes the majority of industries. Directive is relating only to the future environmental damages occurred after its entry in force. Directive adopts strict liability for the operators of the activities dangerous to the environment applicable to any and all environmental damage, whereas for the operators of all other activities the fault-based liability applies and only in respect to the environmental damage of the ecosystem. Operators are not liable for damage provoked by third party, damage occurred regardless of the implementation of the appropriate protection procedures or damage in case of a force majeure event. Also, operators can waive responsibility invoking the so-called “state of art defense”, i.e. arguing that the harmful action was considered environmental friendly by the time of its occurrence. Another waiver from the responsibility, the so-called permit defense is possible in case whereof environmental damage is provoked by the action which was made in accordance with the issued permit/state authorization. Directive obliges the operators to inform relevant authorities of environmental damage risks which occur due to the operators’ activities, as well as to undertake appropriate measures of control, limitation, security, removal of harmful effects and risk/damage management. Directive defines the preventive measures as the measures instituted in response to an event, action or failure to act which created the threat of environmental damage, which measures aim to prevent or mitigate the consequences of such environmental damage. Directive further defines remedial measures as measures or combination of measures, including risk/damage management and provisional measures, with the aim to revoke, rehabilitate or replace damaged natural resources. Directive recommends to the Member States to encourage the operators to contract appropriate insurances and other financial cover from liability. Bearing in mind the development of environmental liability issue, it is uncertain whether and how will the insurance companies build new insurance policies in alternative to the classical insurance from civil responsibility which is only in small part applicable to the environmental damages. The same can be said for the financial market itself, knowing that the entire success of the Directive depends on the financial capacities of the operators to assume the liabilities introduced by the Directive.
Pursuant to the Directive, companies shall have to bear themselves the risks of removal of consequences of environmental damage. We are of opinion that a respectable company cannot afford non-cooperation with the authorities, otherwise it risks refusal of work permits, investigations and inspections, refusal of state loans and other benefits. In the aim of prevention of environmental damage, the company management would need to develop internal rules and regulations on environmental protection and environmental policy of the company. Although we admit that Directive creates some preconditions for efficient and uniform implementation of the environmental protection and the achievement of sustainable development within the EU, we believe that Directive can help the prevention of environmental damage only in combination with corresponding fiscal and administrative privilege given to the companies willing to introduce and apply preventive environmental measures.
INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS, NO. 3, 2005
The paper analyses the East European countries’ (EEC) security strategy in light of contesting US and Franco-German hegemonic projects. The EEC’s quest for a dual-guarantee strategy, which aims to get hard security from the US through NATO and soft security from the EU, is detailed as to show objectives of the EEC. It is concluded that although this strategy may succeed in times of crisis, it is untenable in the long run because the terms of relations between the EEC and both the US and EU are largely defined by the latter two, not by the EEC. Thus, rather than escaping from one-way dependency, the EEC’s dual-guarantee strategy may result in dual dependency on both the US and the EU.
Dr. József JUHÁSZ
ETHNO-FEDERALISM: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The study analyses the role of federalism in solving the national and ethnic conflicts. From this point of view it describes the main types of modern federal state: mononational (e.g. USA, FRG), multiethnic (Switzerland, present-day Russia) and multinational forms (former socialist federations, present-day Bosnia-Herzegovina). Hereafter the study outlines the most important views which appeared in the modern political thinking about the role of federalism in solving the national and ethnic conflicts. It refers to the messianistic federalist ideologies, to the French republican tradition, and to the American liberal approach. Furthermore it describes the main characteristics of socialist federations, briefly analyses the causes of their disintegration. Finally the study sums up the most important stabilizing factors of ethno-federations.
Prof. Čedomir ŠTRBAC
INDIA AND USA – MEETING OF THE WORLDS AT THE TIME OF GLOBALISATION
The author begins his considerations with the opinion that India-USA relations were not much developed in the whole history of modern times. It was a relationship of distant worlds and civilisations, it was inadequate to their objective importance in the world constellation of relations. However, things are changing considerably and speedily in recent times, in particular.
The author points to the essential features of the contemporary India in a period longer than a half of a century since it became an independent state and analyses the basic characteristics of the socio-political and economic situation of the present India. It is said that there are two pictures of India: one, that shows a comparatively high economic growth and undisputable technical and technological progress, enabling by a number of parameters the position of a strong regional power that influences even some world developments; and the other one, that, by a number of indicators shows that this is underdeveloped, or actually insufficiently developed country. This especially refers to its social field, where, unfortunately no radical progress can be expected in the near future. Therefore, the India's need for even more accelerated economic growth (bigger than the already achieved respectable GDP growth rates) is more than necessary. It is not, however, surprising that together with the continuing maintenance of the democratic system (a unique one in the countries of the so-called Third world), also facing the inherited problems as well as new challenges in the situation full of complexity, this including some potential antagonisms and latent conflictness, in recent times India has shown occasional intensification of its internal contradictions and political instability as well. Therefore, the basic goal of India is today expressed in the political slogan »development all along with social justice«. It is quite certain that this slogan is a binding one for any Indian government.
Concerning the international position and foreign policy India is certainly one of the factors of global significance in international relations. India wants even more – to be regarded as a global factor. It shows it by making claims and specific demands to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. In the changed international circumstances of the post-cold war world the Indian part has pragmatically assessed that the national and state, as well as political and economic interests of the country can in the best way be achieved by establishing partnerships with powerful and rich countries of the world. For this reason its shows a resolute determination to considerably promote its relations with the West and USA, in particular. The support to this lies in affirming the values that are considered to be the comparative advantages of India, and for which the West and USA are sensibilised for many reasons (with the growth of the absorption power of the large Indian market, of course) that stress them themselves in their new approach to India – and these are democracy (the Indian experience as the »greatest world democracy«) and English language.
The Indian orientation towards promotion its relations with USA, as the most influential international factor, was based on the fact that USA have become the first economic partner and the biggest foreign investor (about 1/3 of the overall foreign investments) in the country. It particularly became prominent when diplomatic and political contacts became intensified in late 1990s, and it reached its climax when president Clinton visited India in 2000. This was the first visit of an American president to India after 22-year period, actually the first one after the end of the cold war. On that occasion there was signed the joint statement entitled »India-US Relations: A Vision for the 21st century«. It was a programme document that should serve as a basis for building their future relations. In the economic sphere the visit of president Clinton contributed to development of a more qualitative and substantial diversification of economic relations, especially in the fields of new and »pure« technologies, allocation of credits approved by the American government to some quite new fields, and the like. All this reinforced the position of USA as by far the greatest economic partner of India by all its indicators - trade, capital investment, etc., this excluding the military and economic co-operation (Russia has retained its primacy here). By approaching of these two countries at the end of the last century and millennium and at the beginning of the new ones a trail was blazed for a productive »encounter of the worlds«. This has also been substantiated in the forthcoming years after the Bush administration took power. With all realism and pragmatism of the Indian foreign policy, balancing and flexibility in building its new partnership with USA, there can also be noticed its aspiration to keep being attached to some values that are its traditional characteristics in the time of independence even in these new circumstances – independence, pledging for establishment of a polycentric world, support to the legitimate aspirations of developing countries. The imperative for any Indian government is to remain attached to the fundamental principles and ideals of international justice and international legal order – within which India gained its national independence – as well as a respect for moral strength of the international public opinion.
RUSSIA AND THE WEST - POLITICS, HISTORY, CULTURE
In this paper, two visions of Russia and its role in the political and cultural history of Europe and the world, as well as in responding to challenges that are yet to be set before the international community, are compared with each other. The first vision is typical for the West and was built by Western ideology, based mainly on historical differences, conflicts and misunderstanding between the two. From that point of view, only those credits and potentials of Russia are acknowledged which the West recognises as its own, and those are power, wealth, struggle against fascism and, above all, brilliant Russian science and art of the 19th and 20th century. On the other side, all the aspects of Russian society and culture which are alien to the Westerners are marked as adverse, harmful and backwards. At first, that applies to “communism”, but then to everything else proclaimed “oriental” by the contemporary ideological discourse - Christian Orthodoxy, “the history of disregarding democracy and human rights”, and famous “susceptiveness to authority” and “proneness to totalitarianism”. That Russia may achieve deeds of any greater merit for the global society is openly doubted, while the West tends to see itself as a “big brother” which could help Russia make advantage of its “objective riches” and denounce its “objective flaws”, thence finding its place in a world order it would not be allowed to build actively and independently, but only as a “strategic partner” of the real doer - West.
The second vision also comes out of a Western perspective, only from a different angle - from the starting point of a value crisis, manifested primarily in arts and culture in general, but also in social and political institutions and relationships. This value crisis, one decade after another, increasingly shows itself a big and unsolvable problem for Westerners, especially the political and economic power centres in charge of their future. Evaluating everything with money has led to money as the sole value, while the rest has been made absurd through conventionalism and relativism. However, an instance of that process has, in the form of a political and cultural globalisation, revealed in post-Soviet Russia a highly local system of defence against such crises. It is a specific mechanism of inhibition of foreign influences on Russian culture, filtrating aspects of foreign culture which are to be accepted as valuable, reviving and strengthening its own at the same time. Shown a number of times in history, this mechanism is founded on the values and characteristics of a typically Russian national spirit, the ones often criticised by Westerners - proverbial Russian “irrationality”, “immoderation” and “idealism”. At the same time, historical and cultural arguments are presented in favour of a claim that the very Russian model of self-improvement, social reform and uncompromised devotion to set ends, might offer adequate answers to burning issues of contemporary society. It is also argued that, within Russian society, some of those innate “mechanisms” have shown to be fruitful on numerous occasions in the past, as they were in recent times.
Considering that, the argument of this paper attempted to follow the guidelines of a stretched reductio ad absurdum, starting from Western premises so it could reject them in the end. It endeavoured to avoid dogmatic confrontation of the Russian political and cultural model with the Western one, as well as an unnatural division of them into completely different and non-related cosmoses. Contrary to usual (Westerners’) view, it has been argued that the repetitive rising of the “iron curtain” and insistence on total (both physical, both theoretical) distinction between these models through history has its origin in Western antagonism towards Russia, and not the opposite. On the other side - the historical openness of Russia and her people towards cultural (and political) achievements of the West (tsar Peter the Great’s reform, Russian Romantics and the Socialist Revolution being the most obvious examples) speaks in favour of seeing the former as a socio-political actor capable of coping with global problems. At the same time, positive results in preserving their own values firstly, and adopting (and cherishing) Western cultural heritage as well, indicate that not only the Russian people are capable to offer solutions to contemporary problems, but (in actual fact) have already done so. Finally, if we accept that the creation of a global society and settling scores with world problems is to be a result of cultural, not economic, political or vulgar ideological (self-)improvement, the conclusion is that Russia, through its history, has managed to develop a cultural model which can be generally acceptable and an applicable response to the challenges of the future, offering at the same time a wide array of specific solutions for burning issues of our time.
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF INFORMAL ECONOMY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The informal economy increasingly draws attention of researchers for at least two reasons. First, the scope of the informal sector of economy is becoming bigger and bigger. Second, there grows the opinion that without revealing the hidden things in informal economic relations mechanisms for operation of the »real« economy could not be properly built, especially when post-socialist societies are concerned. The significance of the informal economy lies in the fact that with the process of globalisation it, de facto, involves the whole world. For example, the estimates show that in the second half of the 20th century the share of the informal economy in developed countries, OECD member states, was 12 per cent of GDP, in transition countries it amounted to 23 per cent, while in developing countries its share was as high as 39 per cent of GDP.
The collapse of the party state in the Russian Federation brought about the collapse of the distribution system, while the production sector became very weak. However, in 1980s the experts in Soviet studies came to the conclusion that within the generally planned economic activities in USSR there was hidden the economic system of mixed type, with informal, uncontrolled production that played a much greater role in a large number of relations than it was the case with the official production. Since it was allowed to consider the »vice« of the Soviet system during the rule of Mikhail Gorbatchev the Soviet experts committed themselves in the study of the role and scope of the shadow economy in USSR.
After the collapse of communism in Russia, the experts cleared up more fully the essence of the informal economy. Committing themselves to taking up faster economic reforms they approached the informal economy as the socio-economic phenomenon that involved the whole system of social and economic structures, regarding it as an uncontrolled sector of the social reproduction pursued by the society in the process of production, distribution, trade and consumption of goods.
In the Russian Federation, as is after all also the case in other states, the informal economy is manifested in various forms and the most important are the following: a) fictitious economy; b) »shadow« economy; c) off-shore transactions; and d) criminal sector. By the rule, the criminal economy requires a high degree of organisation, and consequently, it appears above all as a source of violations of various scopes and various degrees of stability. As a general tendency in recent years the character of violations has become more transnational, while globalisation of such violations is also present and it is manifested in the form of production and trade in narcotics, arms trade, children and women trafficking, human organs trafficking, and the like.
The informal economy that is integrated into the formal one becomes its integral part in a functional, although not in a legal sense. In the Russian books, as well as in world literature in general, numerous measures are suggested to alleviate the problems of informal economy. The basic direction in the policy of reintegration of the shadow economy into the legal flows of economic activities is to complete as rapid as possible the market-oriented economic system, provide full protection of property, pursuing the policy of macro-economic stability, stable exchange rate, liberalised foreign trade regulations and development of the financial market. For the purpose of improving the tax system and tax policy in order to reduce the shadow economy the experts in this field are of the opinion that the following two group of measures should be taken: (1) preventive and (2) repressive ones. Most authors in the Russian Federation think that preventive measures are more appropriate. Actually, these are the measures that should serve to achieve the goal by simplification and improvement of the tax procedure along with the improved stability of tax regulations on one hand, and those concerning broadening of the tax base and reducing the tax burden, general as well as individual, on the other hand.
Dr. Duško DIMITRIJEVIĆ
DISPUTES OF FR YUGOSLAVIA (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO) BEFORE THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE
The international legal disputes in which FR Yugoslavia (today Serbia and Montenegro) is involved before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) started on 20 March 1993, when Bosnia and Herzegovina instituted proceedings in respect of a dispute concerning the alleged violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of genocide of 9 December 1948. After that, on 29 April 1999, FR Yugoslavia filed applications instituting proceedings against ten member States of NATO “for violation of the obligation not to use force”. Finally, Croatia sued FR Yugoslavia on 2 July 1999, demanded from the ICJ to determine that it was responsible for the criminal acts of its authorities for the commission of the genocide on her respective territory against Croatian citizens. All these disputes could be validly settled before the ICJ, only after the Court determines on its own jurisdiction. The fundamental principle governing the legal proceedings are that, jurisdiction depends on State parties entitled to appear before it and, in the last resort, on the consent of the States concerned. On the 11 July 1996, the ICJ delivered its Judgment, rejecting the Yugoslav preliminary objections to the Court jurisdiction and the admissibility of the Bosnia application. The Court found that, based on Article IX of the Genocide Convention, it had jurisdiction to deal with the merit of the case. FR Yugoslavia filed a new request for revision of the proceedings after the change of the Milošević regime in October 2000. Based on Article 61 of the Statute, FR Yugoslavia demonstrated a new approach that was quite different from its previous legal positions. According to the “new facts” that were unknown to the Court and to the party at the time when judgment was made, it contended that FR Yugoslavia had not been a UN member, hence it had not became a party to the Statute of the ICJ, being an integral part of the UN Charter. It did not continue the international legal personality of the former SFRY and could not be a Successor to the Genocide Convention. In addition, it contended that ICJ had not a jurisdiction to deal with the cases. The ICJ rejected the Yugoslav application for revision at the beginning of 2003, and the contentious proceedings could proceed. In the cases against NATO, the Court manifestly lacked jurisdiction to entertain the Serbia and Montenegro’s application within a system of consensual jurisdiction. The ICJ dismissed the cases filed by FR Yugoslavia because it failed to make substantial allegations that actions of the members States of NATO to threat or use of force against another State and its citizens fell within provisions of the Genocide Convention to which FR Yugoslavia was not a party at the time when the cases were instituted. Accordingly, the Article IX of the Genocide Convention as a primary basis for the Court’s jurisdiction and Yugoslavia’s declaration of acceptance of the Court’s compulsory jurisdiction with the reservation ratione temporis, led ICJ to conclude that its jurisdiction could not be found on this legal foundation. In view of those conclusions, ICJ considered the questions whether FR Yugoslavia had been a member of the UN and whether it was a party to the Court’s Statute and it found that these were not decisive facts for alleged titles for constituting the Court’s jurisdiction. Under the present preliminary stage of the proceedings in the case instituted by Croatia, ICJ may deal with the same or similar issues. Serbia and Montenegro rejected the Croatian arguments set forth in the application, and particularly the alleged titles for constituting the Court’s jurisdiction. The parties obviously did not manifest consent to their dispute over a legal nature that has to be decided by the ICJ on the basis defined in the Article 36 of the Statute. A solution resolving this preliminary question may be based on the precedent from the case against NATO, or on the contrary, within the judgment in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina against Serbia and Montenegro. Both options should be take into account not to extend the dispute and to come to a settlement by peaceful means and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law.
THE ADRIATIC CHARTER: A SHORTER WAY TO ACCESS NATO
By signing the Charter of Partnership among Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and the United States of America in Tirana on 2 May 2003 a new inter-state arrangement was made in the field of regional security and implementation of democratic, economic and military reforms. The informal name for this arrangement is the Adriatic Charter. The basic goal of this forum is to achieve more successful and faster accession of the states in the Adriatic region to the North Atlantic Alliance. In addition, this document provides for establishment of a more intensive co-operation among the states in the region.
In the introduction of the paper, the author points to the circumstances that had preceded signing of the Charter of Partnership among Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and the United States of America. Then he analyses in details the Charter of Partnership pointing to the three conditions for accession of the signatory states to the North Atlantic Alliance. As the author says, these are political, economic and military conditions. In the author's opinion promotion of the principles of contemporary liberal democracy (the rule of law, human rights, development of a civil society, market economy, etc.) is very significant in the Adriatic Charter. They have not yet been, as he underlines, substantially founded in the states of the Adriatic region.
Analysing the meeting of the Commission on Implementation of the Charter of Partnership and Other Mechanisms for Co-operation within the Adriatic Charter the author points to the gradual intensification of the trilateral co-operation of the member states. The accession to the North Atlantic Alliance and continuation of the trilateral defence co-operation, as the main objectives of the signatory states of the Adriatic Charter, will contribute to a unified and proper response of the states in the region to the contemporary challenges (terrorism, organised crime and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction). In order to intensify co-operation among the Adriatic Charter member states the annual action plans are adopted and they include all joint initiatives and specific aspects of military co-operation within this inter-state forum. The author of the article regards as particularly significant the intensification of inter-parliamentary co-operation among the states in the region that are members of the Adriatic Charter.
In spite of the prominent regional dimension of the Adriatic Charter, the author concludes that the principle of individual approach is applied in assessing the fulfilment of conditions for accession to the North Atlantic Alliance. This implies that any Adriatic Charter member state will not be »enslaved« by the strict regional approach or actually full fulfilment of conditions for accession to NATO on the part of the member states of this regional initiative.
The principles of territorial integrity and (non)interference halt the influence of self-determination. Legal relationship between these principles become much more complex in the Balkans despite the strong regard given to preserving the territorial integrity of the state. One of the repercussion of this controversial relationship is that human right stay without effectual protection in the case of conflict between these two principles. In this circumstance central government and movement to self-determination are supported to settle its claims by restoring to armed hostilities. The author explains how international community can reduce the inherent conflict as the working out of these principles in light of the forces of democratisation and respect for human rights, peace and development comes to make the parties see them as less and less irreconcilable.
THE JAPANESE ECONOMIC ENIGMA
The subject of this article is the Japanese enigma: the long-lasting extraordinarily rapid economic growth, the so-called Japanese economic miracle, and then a very sharp set-back in the growth rate, the prolonged recession. The authors, using an endogenous growth model, have proven that an economic miracle did not happen in Japan either: the very rapid growth proceeded in conformity with the general regularities of economic development. The main cause of prolonged recession, according to the empirical results, is the currency shock, occurred on the basis of an international agreement in the mid-1980s, which decelerated the hitherto extremely dynamic development of Japanese exports, considerably retarding the main factor of rapid economic growth.
WORLD ECONOMY 2000-2005 – BASIC INDICATORS
As had never been the case in the past, the world economy recorded an impressive growth in the second half of the 20th century. In 2000, the world output was in real terms 7 times bigger than in 1950, while the world gross domestic product was 6.6 times bigger. The growth of the world trade was even more impressive, so the volume of the world commodity exports was even 21.8 times bigger than in 1950. In the period of these fifty years the average growth rate of the physical volume of the world output amounted to 4 per cent, while the volume of the world commodity exports totalled 6.4 per cent.
The impressive growth and development of the world economy and trade was mostly conduced by the following: fantastic technical and technological progress in industrial and agricultural production, traffic, telecommunications and other sectors in services, fascinating growth of foreign direct investments, international transfer of technology and know-how in general, rather prominent liberalisation of the international trade, very dynamic growth of the world population, expansion of economic freedoms and democracies, development of international standardisation both in the sphere of production and services as well, the process of privatisation and increasingly dominant participation of the private sector in the world economy and international trade, the increasing unification of international business law, giantisation and transnationalisation of the increasing number of companies what made the economy of scale fully prominent.
Unexpectedly, in 2001 the volume of the world output and world trade even recorded decrease in comparison to those recorded in 2000. This resulted from a number of circumstances that ensued in the drastic fall of foreign direct investments and serious economic crisis several most developed countries were taken by (as are Japan, the USA and Germany). In addition, some developing countries of which the most important were Brazil and Mexico were also taken by the economic crisis. All these produced an adverse effect that was reflected in the considerable decline of GDP growth of Central and East European countries.
In spite of the further decline of foreign direct investments in 2002 and 2003 in particular, the world economy and world trade accomplished recovery. Among the most developed countries the USA accomplished the most prominent recovery. Transition countries and Russia in particular, recorded very prominent acceleration of economic growth. Among the most significant developing countries China and India recorded the most impressive economy growth. Due to the considerable increase in oil exports revenues the oil exporting countries also recorded a great economy growth.
In spite of a very prominent rise in oil prices in 2004 the accelerated recovery of the world economy and world trade was continued. That acceleration resulted from the growth of economic activities in the USA, United Kingdom, Commonwealth of Independent States, China, India, 10 new EU member countries and a number of other developing countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa.
Due to a number of specific factors such as the break-up of the country, UN sanctions, NATO air raids that all occurred in the last decade of the previous century the Serbia and Montenegro's economic activity and foreign trade drastically declined. After the normalisation of its relations with the world in the 2000-2004 period, the Serbia and Montenegro's foreign trade grew very dynamically. In that period the inflow of foreign direct investments considerably increased, what in addition to other factors, contributed to attaining a comparatively dynamic GDP growth. The revival of the world trade and rise in prices of primary commodities on the world market in 2004 in particular, contributed to a certain extent to the dynamic exports growth of Serbia and Montenegro. However, all that contributed to its imports growth, what together with some other factors resulted in enormous rise and high foreign trade deficit and the current deficit in balance of payments. For this reason Serbia and Montenegro should take this year the measures to reduce the deficits, what with the decline in agricultural production will result in decrease of GDP growth.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
Nuclear weapons in international politics and the theoretical explanations of that phenomenon are followed by various controversies. As for nuclear weapons in international politics there can be noticed two opposite processes: the process of proliferation of nuclear weapons, on one hand, and the process of its reduction, on the other.
Concerning the proliferation of nuclear weapons, one can draw the following conclusions: first, there are nine countries with asserted nuclear status; second, another few countries are suspected to work on development of nuclear programmes. As for the reduction of nuclear weapons the following can be concluded: first, there have been launched numerous initiatives, both bilateral and multilateral, for the reduction of nuclear weapons and the most important among them is the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons adopted in 1970; and second, only some of these numerous initiatives have produced the expected results and led to the reduction of nuclear weapons.
Regarding the contemporary development of nuclear weapons there are three facts that are a matter of concern for the world public: first, great powers, this primarily concerning the USA, announce that they will further develop their nuclear policies, this implying production of new kinds of nuclear weapons and the defence system against them; second, smaller countries that make attempts to get into possession of nuclear weapons jeopardise the process of reduction of nuclear weapons, they confront with each other as well as with the USA, threatening in this way the international security; and third, the international security is also endangered by the fact that terrorists or the so-called non-state actors can also get into possession of nuclear weapons. Concern for further proliferation of nuclear weapons makes many people describe the contemporary situation in this field by using the syntagm »the second nuclear era«.
Contradictions that are manifested in international politics in the field of nuclear weapons are also reflected in the contradictory theories on the role of nuclear weapons in this sphere as well as in the contradictory forecasts of the effects of further proliferation of nuclear weapons. The division of theoretical approaches to three ones (neorealism, liberalism and the alternative approach) also points to the different objects of their interest.
Neorealists are of the opinion that nuclear weapons are one the most significant factors for establishment of peaceful relations among great powers (or »nuclear peace«); they regard nuclear weapons as the absolute ones, considering the possibilities and limitations of the strategy of nuclear deterrence. They predict that the future proliferation of nuclear weapons, that should be moderate and directed by great nuclear powers, will produce stabilising effects on the relations among countries that possess them. Their ultimate conclusion – that one should not be afraid of the proliferation of nuclear weapons but should acclaim and control them – reflects the so-called nuclear optimism.
Liberal theoreticians in international politics take as a starting point the fact that the continued proliferation of nuclear weapons increases the risk of a nuclear war, expressing pessimism as regards the existence and further proliferation of nuclear weapons (nuclear pessimism). Liberals mostly consider the possibilities to promote international initiatives that would prevent this phenomenon, and the climax in their proposals for the reduction of nuclear weapons is the idea of the so-called virtual or latent nuclear arsenals.
The alternative approaches in the study of the problems related to nuclear weapons deal with the »neglected« aspects of proliferation as are the role of taboos, culture, non-governmental and transnational organisations as well as the role of the so-called epistemological communities in the process of prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Each of the existing theoretical approaches studies a different part of the international reality in the sphere of nuclear weapons. Thematically, they could be complementary, supplementing each other. In that sense, one can expect that their theoretical synthesis could be made in the future. However, judging by the nature of conclusions they make on the role of nuclear weapons in international politics, being optimistic on one hand, and pessimistic on the other, their synthesis is not likely to be made in the future. However, the practice itself shows that the synthesis of nuclear pessimism and nuclear optimism has, after all, been made. This is asserted by the fact that the process of proliferation and the process of reduction of nuclear weapons are going on simultaneously. For this reason, one should expect that such development would be continued in the future: nuclear proliferation will go on, controlled and directed in various ways by great powers and the USA, in particular.
EUROPE AT THE CROSSROADS: CONSTITUTION, ENLARGEMENT AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN UNION
Critics of enlargement usually claim that the acceptance of new countries into the EU would occur at the expense of further integration. But the history has proved that these critics are wrong: widening and deepening have always gone arm in arm. But even though the European Union will now have to accept the new members the enlargement process will not stop. The Union has already made political commitments to additional EU members: Romania and Bulgaria will probably enter the Union in 2007; Turkey has been an accession candidate since 1999 and this year the European Council has opened accession negotiations with this country; Croatia entered a new phase with opening of the accession negotiations on 3 October 2005; the other Balkan countries have been promised a clear accession perspective; in spite of the European Neighbourhood Policy – that in principle excludes membership – further thinking of EU enlargement includes also Ukraine, Moldova and even Russia.
But the French and Dutch referendums have halted both deepening and widening in the EU. The people in those countries were reluctant to accept a wider Europe fearing that the result would be a free trade area with weak political institutions. But despite the difficulties, Europe's leaders should try to keep alive the membership hopes, so the EU adopted a new comprehensive enlargement strategy for the candidate countries. This strategy is based on three principles: consolidating the EU´s commitments on enlargement, applying fair and rigorous conditionality and communicating enlargement better. EU must remain rigorous in demanding fulfilment of its criteria, but it should also remain fair in rewarding progress duly.
For Serbia and Montenegro, the EU proposes a road map for achieving its European perspectives, setting out the stages and conditions attached to each stage. Establishing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU is a fundamental step in this process. After implementing its SAA obligation, Serbia and Montenegro will be awarded the status of a candidate, but it does not automatically mean that the county can start negotiations for EU membership. It should reach a sufficient degree of general compliance with the membership criteria and the political criteria as well, including full co-operation with the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. Kosovo´s further progress towards the EU is also a part of the enlargement strategy.